May 2, 2025 Lumber News
SYP The SYP lumber market is finally showing signs of softening for the first week this Spring. Although the average for...
I expect that it was surely used earlier but the first record is- can you guess?… Noah’s Ark. Ever wondered how much lumber Noah and his sons needed to build the ark? The life-sized replica built by Answers in Genesis of Noah’s Ark around 10 years ago might give us a clue. The total project consumed around 200 truckloads or 3 million board feet of lumber including Douglas Fir and Ponderosa Pine. The Amish crews who did the construction used 4 tractor trailer loads of lumber a week including some massive logs; 28” to 38” in diameter and up to 48 feet long. Imagine how much harder building this large vessel would have been for Noah without the advantage of power equipment!
What do we know about the species that Noah used? Teak seems to best represent gopher wood as it is a commonly used structural material used in the Middle East. Some also think it may have been a general term for high-quality, durable wood, and some think it may be a now-extinct species. One of the challenges in determining species is that the Hebrew word used for gopher wood is not used anywhere else in the Bible.
This first recorded use of lumber certainly had a tremendous impact on our existence as a human race.
In December I was able to take a tour of one of the larger southern sawmills in Mississippi. Upon pulling into the driveway, I was already in awe of the piles (more like miniature mountains) of cut pine logs that were lying in the background of the mill. In front of them was a crane standing well over 100’ tall with a long-outstretched arm and a dangling claw that picked up half a truck load of logs at a time. The crane operator’s station was positioned two-thirds of the way up the crane at the end of the arm, posing an obligatory morning exercise routine for the crane operator, as nearly 150 steps were to be climbed to reach the station.
In a single file line were semis that were waiting to be unloaded, I was told that they unload anywhere from 100 to 150 trucks a day. This would equate to unloading around 2,500 pine logs a day; which while standing, probably took up around 5 acres. And before I continue with more astonishing numbers, keep in mind that this is just accounting for a single saw mill in Mississippi.
Once the logs enter the mill, they are first sent to a 5-head saw and are cut to a specific length. They then go through a debarking station. Next, the log enters a machine and is ran through rollers that surround the log that measure the diameter from end to end. At the same time the computer also calculates the warp direction of each log and rotates it accordingly for the next stage. Within seconds of the rollers touching the log, the computer has already decided how many 2x4s and 2x6s (for example) will come from the log, always calculating for the least amount of waste possible.
The round logs are then run through a series of stations and saws spanning over 300 feet and coming out the other end as rectangular lumber. The lumber is then run past another series of laser scanners that determine the grade for each board. The next machines then sort the boards by grade and dimensions, and are dropped into racking systems below. And oh yes, I forgot to mention that while walking through the facility, you are walking on a catwalk nearly 40 feet above ground level. The catwalk’s floor, like most, was made of metal grating which allowed for a constant reminder of how high up you really were at all times; which apparently did not bode well for some new employees with a fear of heights.
As it may have already stood out to you in this reading, the amount of automation through the entire process was very impressive. This particular mill is described as “state-of-the-art”, or in other words: having the most recent stage of technological development. This automation allows for this mill to produce 250 million board feet annually. If, for instance, they were to only make 2x4x8s, each year they would produce 47 million of them; and if stacked from end to end, would wrap around earth nearly 3 times. Many questions arise from hearing vast quantities such as these like, “Where is all of this lumber going?” Or, “How can these numbers be sustained given forest lands are decreasing each year?” Let’s save these points of discussion for future articles.
Unfortunately, there is no shortage of factors to consider that are affecting lumber prices in the first quarter of 2025: Ongoing wars overseas, labor disruptions at the East and Gulf ports, harsh winter weather, and leadership changes in both America and Canada to name a few.
Just weeks before president elect Donald Trump took office, many Canadian mills either opted to cease selling to the American market, or, implemented a 20% increase for shipments after January 20th; given his looming promise of a 25% tariff to come. Who will be on the Canadian end of the inevitable negotiations between the two countries is also up in the air as Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that he will be stepping down in 2025.
We ended 2024 with SYP (Southern Yellow Pine) prices back on the rise after being on a downward trend for most of Q4. Some are convinced that this new trend upward will be sustained through at least the first half of 2025. Overall, it seems that the Trump administration is bringing optimistic notions for most lumber market players; that is, those in the United States. SPF (Spruce-Pine-Fir) prices remained nearly flat through most of January.
As southern plywood prices remained relatively stable, OSB prices have taken a dive coming in to 2025. With the winter weather has come a lack of demand causing producers to have more on-hand inventory than preferred; forcing them to be open to double-digit counter offers from buyers. Some are even speculating that if it weren’t for the tariff threat, we would be seeing even deeper cuts in panel pricing.
It seems to be fairly typical for pallet shops to experience lower demand in January. Interestingly, a number of shops are reporting that orders seem to be rolling in steadily and at a bit higher level than a typical January. With the fact that low grade yellow pine has been trending upwards there are a number of pallet suppliers that expect to be raising pallet prices over the next few months. Hardwood pallet cant prices have been holding steady so far but there continues to be a concern about the long term supply of low grade hardwood give the current low level of production at most hardwood mills.
One hardwood Sawmill operator that I spoke with in January explained that one of the large companies that purchases railroad ties from sawmills had just stopped buying ties from all but three of the hardwood mills in his region. It does seem like there has been a slight downward trend in price over the last 8 months but ties still remain well above the average price of 2020 and 2021 which is something that cannot be said for all other classes of hardwood.
The year 2024 sets the record for the lowest level of eastern US hardwood sawmill production in 65 years. Industry sources estimate that just under 5 billion board feet were produced. The average over the last 65 years is around 9 billion board feet with the record high being set in 1999 of around 12.5 billion board feet. It appears that around 2009 was a serious turning point for the hardwood industry with annual production levels being significantly below the 65-year average ever since. The amount of hardwood lumber consumed by furniture construction in 2024 is about 10% of what was consumed by furniture in 1999 and hardwood cabinets are now using less than 25% of lumber that they had 25 years ago. What the future holds for the hardwood lumber industry is of course impossible to predict completely, but there may be several factors that will continue to affect customers choice. With the lower price tag of wood look-a-like products, it would seem logical that new home construction would tend to favor look-a-likes instead of genuine hardwood flooring and cabinets. At the present, homeowners who are remodeling are more likely to make the choice for genuine hardwood than new home builders.
After some excitement about lowering interest rates late in 2024 it appears that the mortgage rates have not significantly improved for the prospective home buyer. There was a dip of about ¾ of a percent but that appears to have been short lived. Interest rates will probably remain one of the primary factors that will affect the housing market in 2025. As one industry expert commented that with the cost of eggs and electricity many may not have any money left for a high mortgage payment also. The median price of homes in the United States for both new and existing homes did drop slightly towards the end of 2024 to just a touch over $400,000 according to the Census Bureau. In spite of the challenges that the housing market faces, there were somewhere around one and a half million new house permits issued in 2024.
